January 8, 2017

Energy Efficiency Potential Assessments and Forecasts

Trend analyses, forecasting, and potential studies build on the historical and present context of a market. They also predict what may happen in the future based on quantitative and qualitative information. Often conducted using statistical or econometric models, these studies can focus on one technology or market trend. Alternatively, they can incorporate and aggregate a number of factors, such as with portfolio-wide potential studies. Because these studies are often driven by quantitative data, they can help clients to gain a very clear and visual assessment of what the future may have in store. However, the results can be highly variable depending on the type of model used, the inputs, and the modeling team, among other factors. Potential studies can be a powerful tool for program administrators and policy makers to evaluated alternative scenarios as compared to the current market.

Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: Potential studies are a specialty for Anchor Blue team, having conducted potential studies in the energy efficiency sector for over 60 utilities and governing bodies over the past decade. Anchor Blue’s Senior Partner, Gary Cullen, originally developed the Electric Resource Assessment Model (ELRAM) for Navigant Consulting eight years ago and continued to build and improve the model during his tenure at Navigant. Energy Efficiency Potential Assessments provide clients with a starting point to develop programs by identifying the most cost-effective and highest energy saving measures for an assessed service territory. These analyses include in depth energy efficiency technology research and assessment, utility data assessment, cost-benefit analyses, development of decision making algorithms to forecast adoption, and ultimately a series of scenarios.

Anchor Blue team memebers have been involved with over 50 different clients to conduct energy efficiency potential studies while members of Anchor Blue and Navigant Consulting.